A Mathematical Approach to Estimate the Burden of Diabetes and Its Complications on the Sri Lankan Economy

Abstract

Diabetes is one of the principal healthcare challenges in the world, and diabetes is a serious complex condition which can affect the entire body. The development of diabetes is projected to reach pandemic proportions over the next 10-20 years. International Diabetes Federation (IDF) data indicates that by the year 2025, the number of people affected will reach 333 million. The annual health costs caused by diabetes and its complications account around 6-12% of all healthcare expenditure. Further, the study on the prevalence of diabetes in Sri Lanka show a prevalence of 14.2% among males and 13.5% among females. Unlike prior work, we use a mathematical model to estimate the burden of diabetes and its complications on the Sri Lankan economy. Such an approach has not been considered in the Sri Lankan context. This model monitor the population of diabetes with and without complications. The fourth-order Runge-Kutta method is used through MATLAB software to solve the model. The cost of illness method is applied to compute the cost of diabetes. We find that the total predicted Sri Lankan diabetic patients will be 3.32 million in the year 2020. Also, the total cost for diabetic patients in the year 2020 is $ 1.49 billion.