Forecasting Paddy Production in Yala And Maha Seasons in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Rice is the staple food of approximately 20 million inhabitants in Sri Lanka. Being a crop which contributes to the Sri Lankan economy, with a huge portion, it is very important to be aware of the future fluctuations in paddy production. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to forecast the paddy production in Yala and Maha seasons. The annual paddy production data obtained from the Department of Census and Statistics from 1952 to 2015 in Yala and Maha seasons were used to forecast the paddy production for next years. The best fitted forecasting model in Yala season was ARIMA (3,1,1) and that for Maha season was ARIMA (2,1,1). Being a rain-fed crop grown in different agro-ecological regions, paddy production largely depends on the climatic factors. Accordingly, the study also aims to identify the impact of climatic factors such as rainfall, temperature and pH value on paddy production in Kurunegala district. The annual data of above climatic factors were obtained from the Department of Agriculture in Kurunegala district from 1971 to 2017. Correlation and step-wise regression procedures were used for this analysis and it was found that the mostly affected climatic factor for paddy production is rainfall.