Forecasting Tea Leaf Harvest of Hill Garden Tea Factory (Pvt) Ltd in Galle District

Abstract

Tea production, traditionally known as Ceylon, is one of Sri Lanka’s key sources of foreign cash and one of the country’s main sources of income. It is the world’s fourth largest producer of tea and second largest exporter. Hill Garden Tea Factory (pvt) Ltd is an organization that has been great support in the development of the tea industry in the Galle district. In this study, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was identified to forecast tea harvest in near future, and it will be very useful to organization for their future success and take some decision to increasing to total tea harvest for the company growth. Data were analyzed using Minitab software using Time Series Analysis Methods were used under Box Jenkins Methodology. The Monthly data of 10 years were collected from the Tea Factory System Control Program from January 2011 to December 2020. The harvest obtained by the Galle district was modelled and ������������(��,��,��)(��,��,��)����, ������������(��,��,��)(��,��,��)���� and ������������(��,��,��)(��,��,��)���� models were identified as adequate models to forecast future harvest. The best model was identified by calculating the Mean Absolute Percent Error(MAPE) values and Accuracy value of tentative models. The best forecasting model was identified as the ����������(��,��,��)(��,��,��)����.